Can Disasters Be an Opportunity? How to Turn Urban Disasters to Advantage

The history of humanity is studded with disasters, natural or otherwise. In the age of the 24 hour news agenda, the media make us so aware of them that they have a growing impact on public opinion. And so vulnerable have today’s cities become, with the complexity and interconnectedness of their various networks (electricity, gas, water, telecommunications), that this is truer still when they occur in urban environments. However, as Jacques de Courson argues here, these urban disasters, whether associated with natural catastrophes (earthquakes, storms, flooding etc.), industrial accidents (pollution, explosions), political events (terrorism and uprisings) or other factors, may also have salutary effects for populations. Hence the importance of studying these phenomena more closely from a foresight angle. This is why, after examining what is to be understood by the notion of urban disaster (definition, typology, reasons to fear such disasters or otherwise), de Courson presents various strategic options for the public officials of potentially vulnerable towns and cities. Drawing on historical instances (Carthage, Babylon) or more contemporary examples (Kabul, Bangkok), he shows what lessons are to be learned to “turn disasters to advantage” – despite the tragedies they produce – and he offers six possible development scenarios for towns or cities faced with this type of challenge. Human beings have always bounced back from the severest catastrophes and this foresight exercise on urban disasters well reflects this, while throwing into question the pertinence of the “town/city” level in this context. What is to be done, however, if the disaster in question assumes planetary proportions (global warming, for example)? It remains an open question.