Climate Change: A Geostrategic Issue. A Critical Conspectus of Recent Foresight Exercises

As part of the dossier in this issue devoted to the potential geopolitical consequences of climate change on the occasion of the airing of the special co-production on this theme by Futuribles, Mano-a-Mano and Arte (scheduled for 20 May 1008 on the Arte TV channel), Geoffrey Delcroix has examined the foresight studies that have been carried out in this area. As he shows in this article, the question of the geostrategic impacts of climate change emerged only recently, initially in the United States, but it is rapidly gaining importance in the strategic thinking of an increasing number of developed countries, though unfortunately France seems to be an exception.
The author offers a detailed analysis of the most recent major reports on this theme, including the (pioneering) study carried out in 2003 for the Pentagon by the Global Business Network and the further study that followed in 2007, work done for the US navy, a number of other American documents and also studies produced by European think-tanks. As he stresses, the question of the geopolitical impact of climate change (climatic migrants, conflicts linked to the reduction of food or energy resources, changed conditions in theatres of operation…) now has a prominent place in the strategic analyses of the US, British and Swedish defence departments, among others. France, however, is lagging sadly behind in its thinking in this area and urgently needs to make up ground.