Controversy on the Forecasting and Incidence of Catastrophes
In April 1997 (n°219), Futuribles published an article by Bernadette de Vanssay entitled “Du séisme de Kanto au séisme de Kobé. Utilité et limites de la prévision des catastrophes (From the Earthquake of Kanto to the Earthquake of Kobé: The Usefulness and Limitations of Catastrophe Forecasts)”.
The article elicited a lively reaction from one of our readers. Lucien Coste of the environmental risks division at Électricité de France reproaches us for having let pass two obvious and indisputable errors of fact. He also notes that the article left out the problem of panic and looting which accompany major catastrophes, and finally that it failed to account for some good research on forecasting catastrophes.
We publish Coste’s letter in this issue, along with a review of the book he recommended to us. Finally, we publish an expansion drafted with the collaboration of Bernadette de Vanssay on the question of panic and on the pre-visibility of catastrophes, subjects for which the evidence is highly controversial.
Cet article fait partie de la revue Futuribles n° 226, déc. 1997
