By the time this issue of Futuribles reaches its readers, the legislative elections of 28 November 2010 will have taken place in Egypt, probably with little consequence for the government that has been in power since 1981. For though the Egyptian people is not exempt from the occasional convulsion and has, for some years, been willing to go on to the streets when it is unhappy with its situation (as witness the “hunger riots” of 2008), this never goes so far as to threaten Hosni Mubarak’s regime. Incidentally, the Egyptian president is tending now to make concessions (having accepted, for example, multiparty presidential elections in 2005) and his son, Gamal, who has been sounded out as his successor, is seen as being on the reforming wing of the ruling party.
To throw light on these matters, which are often poorly understood, Dina el-Khawaga and Jean-Noël Ferrié unpick for us here the particular context of Egyptian domestic politics. They stress, among other things, the very different attitude an authoritarian regime like Hosni Mubarak’s can have to time, by comparison with democratic regimes. While not standing out against the political liberalization of the country, the current regime is advancing only slowly, whereas Mubarak’s son would be inclined to speed up the pace of reform. Both the old and new guards are at one in wishing to provide effective responses to Egyptian society’s demands, so as to perpetuate the regime, but the difference among the reformers is their concern to advocate a “social contract” providing new foundations for the operation of civil society. It remains to be seen which of the two wings of the regime will win out and at what date…
