While the electoral campaign for the French presidency and parliament focused particularly on changes to the pensions system, with controversies around the retirement age, in this September-October number Futuribles is launching a series on the ageing of the population from the social, economic and physiological angles. As an opener, Alain Parant provides an update on the new demographic prospects that emerge from the revision of the projections published by the national statistical institute INSEE in late 2021.
Running from January 2021 to January 2070, these projections are based on sets of hypotheses regarding the three main components that shape the evolution of the population—fertility, mortality and migration—and Alain Parant reminds us of these here. However, incorporating the most recent trends (continuing decline in fertility, a downturn in advances in average life-expectancy), those hypotheses turn out to be much less optimistic than in previous projection exercises. With regard to fertility, for example, the newly anticipated range of variation turns out to be very close to 1995 assumptions, when the fertility rate was at one of its lowest levels since the end of the Second World War. As a consequence, future demographic growth may slow substantially in France and the population may grow more aged. In such a context, socio-economic equilibria could depend greatly on what migration policies are adopted.
