What Scenarios for the War in Ukraine? The Progression of the Conflict and Geopolitical Trajectories to 2025

Accéder à la version française The invasion of Ukraine by Russia on 24 February 2022 smashed head-on into a convalescent world weakened by the Covid 19 pandemic. The short and decisive « special operation » the Russian regime had imagined ground to a halt in the face of Ukrainian resistance, forcing the two states into an extended war. The uncertainties this conflict raises about the future are many and varied. They deserve to be considered using a systemic foresight approach to reflect on the trajectories that might be envisaged both on the ground and, more broadly, on the international scene. Futuribles International has therefore identified the major trends and questions that enable us to set the parameters of this foresight thinking. On this basis, six scenarios for how the conflict might unfold have been proposed, working to a short time horizon (three years). Three of these in particular have been worked up and their geopolitical implications for the years to 2025 studied. This analysis presents the results of this foresight exercise.